Y'all Street Daily
Cooler-than-expected July inflation has all but taken a near-term Fed rate hike off the table, and traders now see roughly a 60% chance the central bank holds next month.
Market Snapshot
All figures are indicative opening levels as of this morning, August 14.
The pre-open tone is calm and constructive, with futures barely moved after Thursday's record close and the VIX holding near 14.
Metals took a breather as the dollar firmed, with gold and silver both slipping, while oil stayed heavy near $82 on softer demand forecasts.
SanDisk is the standout, up almost 14% after laying out an aggressive AI-storage roadmap at its investor day.
Applied Materials fell despite beating estimates, a classic sell-the-news reaction, while Reddit climbed on news it is joining the S&P 500.
Main Story
Cooler inflation is doing the heavy lifting for this rally.
July CPI landed as expected at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core year over year, and wholesale prices were flat on the month, pushing the S&P 500 to a closing record around 7,799.
Traders read the data as removing any near-term case for a Fed rate hike, with futures now pricing roughly a 60% chance the Fed simply holds next month.
The move is broad but momentum-driven, so today's retail sales print and next week's retail earnings will test whether the consumer can keep the record run going.
Chart of the Day
The S&P 500 has climbed almost 400 points since late July, printing a fresh record around 7,804.
Notice how price keeps riding above its rising support line, with only shallow pullbacks along the way.
The 7,850 area is the next line in the sand, and dip buyers have shown up at every test of trend so far.
Technical Trading
A quick read on where the index sits.
RSI on the daily is around 64, firm but still shy of the 70 overbought line.
Price is well above its 50-day average near 7,480 and its 200-day near 7,085, a clean uptrend structure.
Resistance sits around 7,850 with first support near 7,700.
Global News
July CPI matched expectations at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, easing pressure on the Fed to move on rates.
Producer prices were flat in July against forecasts for a 0.2% rise, another sign inflation is cooling at the wholesale level.
Asian equities rallied overnight, with South Korea's KOSPI up over 1.4% and Japan's Nikkei up 0.8%, pointing to a firm US open.
Oil held above $80 as hopes for a Strait of Hormuz reopening faded and the IEA trimmed its 2026 demand outlook.
Fed funds futures now price around a 60% chance the central bank leaves rates unchanged next month.
Texas News
Vistra posted second-quarter net income around $305 million and grew adjusted EBITDA more than 30% to $1.77 billion as Texas power demand keeps climbing.
T1 Energy beat with quarterly revenue around $250 million and guided 2026 solar production toward the high end of its range.
Looking Ahead
Friday, August 14: Retail sales and the University of Michigan sentiment reading give today's fresh look at the consumer.
Week of August 18: Target and Walmart headline retail earnings, the first real test of consumer strength this quarter.
Wednesday, August 26: Nvidia reports, the market's next major catalyst after a quiet week on the calendar.
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Prices from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Kitco. Technical levels from Investing.com and Barchart. News from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Reuters.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.