Y'all Street Daily
Gold and silver broke higher and the dollar slipped below 100 as softer jobs data hardened the bet that the Fed is finished raising rates.
Market Snapshot
Friday closed the week on a firm note, with the S&P 500 tying its 52-week high and the Nasdaq leading on a 1.3% tech bounce.
Softer jobs data pulled the 10-year yield down to 4.65% and knocked the dollar index below 100, a textbook risk-on backdrop.
Gold and silver were the standouts, both breaking higher as real yields eased.
Newmont jumped 7.2% as the gold breakout lifted miners, Nvidia added 2.3% riding the tech tape, and Permian Resources slipped 0.6% even after a strong quarter and raised guidance.
Main Story
The weekend's biggest thread was the Strait of Hormuz, where a deal is close but not close enough to reopen the waterway.
WTI settled around 78.18 and Brent around 83.55 as Iran's foreign minister called an agreement with Oman very close, though transits through the strait have collapsed to roughly a dozen a day from about 130 before the conflict.
The mainstream read is that a diplomatic path lowers the energy risk premium and clears one overhang for a market already leaning risk-on.
What may be underpriced is that Tehran wants sanctions relief and reparations before the strait fully reopens, so even a signed deal may not restore normal flows quickly.
Chart of the Day
Gold closed Friday around 4,342, its cleanest breakout in months after weeks capped near the 4,150 area.
The move tracked the drop in real yields rather than a fresh safe-haven scare, which is what makes it worth watching.
The old range top around 4,150 is the level to watch as support on any pullback.
Technical Trading
A few levels worth marking after Friday's session:
Gold cleared its July range top near 4,150 and closed around 4,342, with the intraday high tagging roughly 4,432.
Silver pushed to about 63.47 with a session high near 65.48, the top of its current run.
The 10-year yield sits at 4.65%, with 4.60% the floor bulls are watching; a break below would extend the dollar's slide under 100.
Global News
Iran and Oman are in the final stages of a Hormuz shipping deal, but Tehran says the strait stays shut until Washington eases sanctions, keeping a risk premium in crude.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.65% and the dollar index slipped below 100, a sign the bond market thinks the Fed's hiking cycle is over.
Japan's Eco Watchers sentiment gauge improved to 44.4, hinting at a slow recovery as traders await the Bank of Japan's next move.
ECB officials spent the weekend pushing back on market bets for early rate cuts, a reminder the dovish trade is not universal.
US CPI lands this week and shapes up as the real test of whether the bond market's dovish wager holds.
Texas News
Midland's Permian Resources raised full-year oil output guidance to 199,000 barrels a day and lifted capital spending to 1.95 billion dollars after a strong second quarter.
The stock eased slightly Friday, but the raised guidance shows Permian Basin producers still leaning into growth even with crude rangebound.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday, August 11: NFIB small-business optimism, seen near 97.8, and existing home sales headline a light data day, alongside a 3-year Treasury auction that will test the bond rally.
Wednesday, August 12: US CPI is the week's centerpiece and the clearest read on whether the Fed-pause trade has legs.
Thursday, August 13: Weekly jobless claims give another labor-market check after the soft payrolls print that set this move in motion.
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Prices from Yahoo Finance, Google Finance and The Rio Times. Technical levels from Investing.com and TradingView. News from Reuters, CNBC and Al Jazeera.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.