Y'all Street Daily
Stocks are steady ahead of the Fed's afternoon rate call and after-hours results from Microsoft and Meta, while a deepening chip rout keeps pressure on the Nasdaq.
Market Snapshot
Ahead of the Fed, the tape is calm on the surface, with the Dow holding near 52,747 after Tuesday's earnings-driven gains and the S&P 500 barely changed.
Underneath, the Nasdaq is soft as the chip selloff bleeds in, gold eased to around $4,091, and silver slipped to around $57.50 while the dollar held near 101.41.
With the VIX around 18.25, the market looks poised rather than panicked heading into a heavy 48 hours.
Microsoft and Meta both report after the close today and have been choppy into the print, while Micron sits at the center of the memory-chip rout after an 8.85% drop.
Main Story
The Fed's July decision lands at 2 p.m. Eastern, and the market cares less about the rate than the message.
A hold at 3.50 to 3.75% is widely expected, the fifth straight pause, with the dollar steady near 101.41 and prediction markets still pricing only a small chance of a hike.
The mainstream read is that sticky inflation and a firm labor market give the committee, in Chair Kevin Warsh's first summer meeting, room to wait rather than cut.
What matters more is the statement's inflation language and then Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close, where AI spending gets scrutinized against this week's chip selloff.
Chart of the Day
Microsoft heads into tonight's fiscal fourth-quarter report having clawed back from its late-June low near $353 to close around $393.
The stock has reclaimed its 50-day line but still sits below its 200-day moving average around $407, the level bulls need to take back.
With options pricing a swing of roughly 7%, the print will decide whether it pushes toward that ceiling or slips back to the $381 floor that has held twice this month.
Technical Trading
A few specific levels worth watching after Tuesday's close.
Micron closed around $821, below its 200-day moving average near $849 and the $895 support shelf, with Barchart's screens flipping to a strong sell.
First overhead resistance now sits around $895 and then $922, the zone that capped the prior bounce.
The VIX held around 18.25 even as chips cratered, a sign the stress is still concentrated in semiconductors rather than the broad tape.
Global News
South Korea's Kospi tumbled around 10.84% and Japan's Nikkei fell around 3.95% overnight, extending the sharpest chip selloff in Asia since spring.
The fresh leg followed a report that China's Shanghai Yuliangsheng began mass-producing chipmaking technology long dominated by ASML, stoking fears over memory pricing and Western equipment demand.
The Federal Reserve decides rates at 2 p.m. Eastern, with a hold at 3.50 to 3.75% widely expected and the inflation language the real focus.
Oil steadied near $79 for WTI after Tuesday's near 4% slide, as the Middle East risk premium kept unwinding.
Thursday brings the first read on second-quarter GDP and the June PCE inflation gauge, the Fed's preferred measure, just before Apple and Amazon report.
Texas News
The Dallas Fed's July manufacturing survey showed output growth accelerating and business outlooks improving, a sign the state's industrial base is holding up even as national factory activity wobbles.
Construction, power generation, and industrial services remain the sectors the Dallas Fed expects to carry Texas job growth through the rest of 2026.
Looking Ahead
Wednesday, July 29: The Fed's 2 p.m. decision and the press conference set the tone, then Microsoft and Meta report after the close in the first real test of AI-spending appetite.
Thursday, July 30: The first estimate of second-quarter GDP and the June PCE inflation reading land before Apple and Amazon round out megacap earnings.
Friday, July 31: Energy majors ExxonMobil and Chevron report as the University of Michigan's final July sentiment reading closes the week.
The Y’all Street Podcast
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Prices from Yahoo Finance and CNBC. Technical levels from Investing.com and Barchart. News from Yahoo Finance, CNBC and Reuters.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Prices are indicative opening levels and may differ from your broker.